Oscar, and heres why:
With all of Floyd's theatrics leading up to this fight, people are going to expect him to deliver. And by deliver, I don't think that just means to win the way he usually wins. I think people are expecting him to punish Oscar and stand toe to toe with him, like he promised...people want to see an all out war, even more so now with all of the hype behind it.
That will be Floyd's downfall for this fight, and his first real career humbling moment, because he's going to learn, that punches from a 154 pounder are much harder than one's at 130-147, where Floyd's been at most of his career.
I think Oscar & Co. are going into this match with the perfect gameplan...which I think is to force Floyd out of his element, and force him to stand up and brawl. Oscar is going to keep Floyd on the ropes as much as possible and cut the ring off. Look for Oscar to go to the body early, to try and negate Floyd's speed in the later rounds.
I'm a fan of both Oscar and Floyd's...I think that Floyd is pound for pound the best fighter in the world right now, but I feel like in order to be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Muhammad Ali, he needs a humbling moment, only to come back better the next time around.
Oscar by decision.