Calzaghe is still about a 3-1 fave, I think it should be a little closer, but none the less he should take this one. I think its going to be close though.
No one is knocking anyone out, so leave that alone.
So you are looking at punch output. Calzaghe should throw almost twice as many punches in the final compubox. If half of those land, he just out boxed him in judges eyes. That RJJ one shot pot shot every so often wont work here, no matter how good it looks. Calzaghe throws too much and will get the nod.
Now if you want to say RJJ will win it, you understand you are going out on a limb. If you are really that confident about it then put some money on it. It will pay 2.5-1 or more. If not, then I guess you aren't THAT confident.