Though the raw numbers sort of suggest otherwise, the Warriors, barring a dramatic salary-slashing move, are essentially capped out through next season, even with $17M in expiring deals slated to come off the books this summer. They’re at $65M on this year’s payroll. They’re way over, thanks to cap exceptions and re-signing veterans and all the sorts of payroll-inflating doo-dads that the owners now want to eliminate. (They can stay above the cap, but ONLY if they trade some salary for more salary. Salary-cap space is not the same as room under the luxury-tax line. Two entirely different things. (When you’re talking about signing major free agents, you have to free up salary-cap space. The Warriors will not have much or any next summer, unless they start giving away big contracts right now–if they can.) San Jose Mercury-News
They’re capped out. I keep saying it. Some have questioned my thinking. Here’s why it’s true and why it’s important to know: * The GSWs have committed about $48M to eight players next season (Ellis, Biedrins, Lee, Curry, DWright, Amundson, Udoh and Bell. Lin’s deal, I believe, is partially guaranteed, but it’s not a big number either way, so I’m not counting it.) Add in the probable $3M first-year salary of a 2011 top-12 pick, and that pops the commitment to $51M for nine players. The Warriors will also have Reggie Williams due for a big salary bump (or, I guess, could sign-and-trade him for an other player making more money), which easily could take it to $55M for 10 players. And they will need 4 or 5 more players to fill out a roster. San Jose Mercury-News
To get under the cap in a way that can land impact free agents free and clear, you have to be at least $10M under. Which will be almost impossible for the Warriors to do. In fact, I predict that they will do something with their expirings that will make it more likely that they will be$10M over for 2011-’12 going into the summer. This doesn’t mean the Warriors can’t do anything. You can always sign-and-trade, as they did with David Lee last summer. You can use whatever exceptions are left with the new CBA. You can trade straight up, contract for contract. But the Warriors will almost certainly not be able to offer large contracts to free agents in a way that will get them to sign straight up or to force their old teams into bad sign-and-trades (as Miami did with LeBron & Bosh). The Knicks will have that room—and had it last summer. The Kings will have that room. Oklahoma City, of all teams, will have plenty of room. The Warriors will not. San Jose Mercury-News