Blu-ray going to flop?

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Jul 7, 2002
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#1
I dont nescessary aggree with this article, but it brings up some info on sony's history on their proprietary formats.


One Last Thing | Setting the stage for another flop?

By Jonathan Last
source: http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/news/columnists/14733980.htm

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. One of life's more satisfying ironies, however, is that the same fate often befalls those who fixate on history. Consider the coming train wreck of Sony's PlayStation 3.

At this year's annual Electronic Entertainment Expo in Los Angeles, Sony announced that its next-generation video-game console will begin retailing in November for $599 (or $499 for a stripped-down version). The news rippled through the gaming industry, the consensus being that Sony had doomed its new system with such a high price tag. Traditionally, home video-game consoles have sold for $199 to $299.

This news was of broader interest than you might think. According to the New York Times, video-game sales in the United States topped $10.5 billion last year. Since Sony released its first PlayStation in September 1995, the company has dominated that market. According to the marketing-information firm NPD Group, Sony's PlayStation 2, which has sold more than 101 million units, owns 55 percent of the current market share in video games.

Over the years, Sony's video-game unit has become increasingly important to the corporation and helped the company through tough times. In the down year of 2002, for instance, PlayStation generated more than half of Sony's profit.

So why would Sony price itself out of such an important market?

The answer is: History. It looks like suicide to offer a $600 video game - unless you are Sony.

The reason for the elevated price is that PlayStation 3 includes Sony's high-definition "Blu-ray" DVD player. As a separate item, these players are not yet available to consumers, but when they arrive in stores this year, they will be priced from upward of $1,000 a pop. Sony owns the Blu-ray disc-reading technology and is girding itself for war against a competing high-definition DVD format, Toshiba's HD-DVD, which arrived on the market in April.

HD-DVD is a less robust medium, but it is both first and cheaper. An HD-DVD player can be had for less than half of what Blu-ray players will cost. With such a disadvantage, Sony is leveraging Blu-ray by tying it to the company's next video-game system. Sony knows a little something about format jousts.

As Edward Jay Epstein details in his book The Big Picture, the company we know as Sony was born in 1945, when Akiro Morita launched Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Co. He sold the type of household gadgets needed in a war-ravaged country: rice cookers and heating pads. Eventually Morita became interested in recording devices. His first major success came when he found a way to use cheap paper tape to record sound. Building his company on recordable tape, Morita internalized the idea of "format über alles."

But he didn't have an opportunity to pursue a new format for many years - not until 1975, when Sony introduced a videorecording device called Betamax.

Like Edsel or New Coke, the word Betamax is now synonymous in business-school classrooms around the country with "corporate failure." It was the first home videorecording system, and it was technologically superior to its competitor, VHS, which did not arrive on the consumer scene until two years later.

But Betamax was also more expensive than VHS. And while Sony tried to keep the fruits of the format to itself, VHS was farmed out to other electronics manufacturers. As John Nathan notes in his book Sony, by 1980, "Betamax was being driven from the home video market."

Over the years, Sony met with other format failures: the mini-disc in 1991 and the memory stick in 1998. Neither was as costly as the Betamax disaster, but both were born of the same mania for proprietary formats.

Sony internalized these losses, but viewed them as the results of tactical, not strategic, defects. So the company looked for ways to bolster new formats. As the DVD revolution was dawning in the late 1980s, Sony spent $3.4 billion to buy the movie studio Columbia-TriStar Pictures. Sony believed its hardware simply needed software to go with it.

Sony wisely avoided the fight for a proprietary DVD format, instead partnering with Toshiba and Philips (the DVD already had one competitor, DivX). But always mindful of the past, Sony looked to establish Blu-ray as the next-generation format, putting it on a collision course with HD-DVD. To gird itself for this war, the company bought another movie studio, MGM, in 2004 for $5 billion and then decided to put Blu-ray drives into the PlayStation 3.

It's a strange way of thinking. Obsessed with owning proprietary formats, Sony keeps picking fights. It keeps losing. And yet it keeps coming back for more, convinced that all it needs to do is push a bigger stack of chips to the center of the table. If Blu-ray fails, it will be the biggest home-electronics failure since Betamax. If it drags PlayStation 3 down with it, it will be one of the biggest corporate blunders of our time.

The people who run Sony aren't stupid; quite the opposite. But every outlook carries its own internal logic, which can lead smart people in unsmart directions.

History teaches some lessons about that, too.
Contact Jonathan V. Last at [email protected].



© 2006 Philadelphia Inquirer and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
http://www.philly.com
 
Apr 27, 2005
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im pretty sure it will flop. I dont expect hd-dvd or blu ray to take off very fast. And I think hd-dvd will win out due to the DVD being in the name which people are familiar with now and because its bacwards compatible unlike blu ray
 
Jul 21, 2005
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snypamuzicc.blogspot.com
#4
DVD+DL is just taking off but slowly, but they are a little pricey for them. Blu-Ray aint no way near better, about $20 for what im thinking 1 disc (maybe 5 at da most) that is 25GB (and they go up to 200GB). But buying a burner for it cost a $1000 right now. Yea its a good idea but its not gonna fly with da average person and they werent thinking of that. DVD are so much cheaper. Reason Mini-Disc got screwed cause of cds.
 

pAc0

Sicc OG
Feb 8, 2006
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#5
This could be Nintendo's chance to pick up the pace since the ps3 will have a slow start(when it's launched)
 

Y-S

Sicc OG
Dec 10, 2005
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#6
Blue-Ray disks are already out.........in Europe......and in Japan too I think.....they still haven't imported to North America....or maybe to public in N.A.......I would buy one for sure.
 

Stealth

Join date: May '98
May 8, 2002
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#7
I'm pretty sure that the reason Sony opted to go with Blu-Ray was because they said they consulted MGM and TriStar and both of those motion picture companies said that they were going in the direction of Blu-Ray rather than DVD. Now that I know Sony actually owns MGM and TriStar, its obviously just a conspiracy to force people to buy Blu-Ray discs once some major motion picture comes out that people want to buy. I guess in a way its kind of like how we all had to go out and buy our favorite movies on DVD even though we already had them on tape. Either way though...I was all about the PS3 because of Final Fantasy...but now that they released the price and I take into account that my MiniDisc player is sitting at the bottom of my closet, I'm just gonna fuck up Zelda on the Wiiiii instead.
 
May 1, 2003
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#8
I don't think it will flop. There will be more Blu-Ray than HD-DVD players in homes via the PS3. The format will spread that way. A lot of non-gaming people will buy the PS3 just for the BlU-Ray. It's getting a lot of plublicty and Sony's marketing campaign for the PS3 hasn't even kicked into high swing yet.
As a matter of fact I heard a commercial on Z-90 (Dago) for a Blu-Ray movie, so it's starting to be pushed. I say by mid-August we will be bombarded by a massive Sony marketing push extending well into next year ('07) Resulting in a lot of PS3's being sold. Once you look at the specs , you realize the price aint that bad for what you get in return.
 
Feb 13, 2006
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#15
what is failed to be mentioned about betamex and VHS is this...the porn industry chose VHS...its a huge industry...so, with that said, whichever format they choose to use will have a very strong hold on the competition
 
Jan 2, 2004
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#19
Home-E said:
im pretty sure it will flop. I dont expect hd-dvd or blu ray to take off very fast. And I think hd-dvd will win out due to the DVD being in the name which people are familiar with now and because its bacwards compatible unlike blu ray
blu-ray is backwards compatable, but I think the name recognition thing could hurt blu-ray, but then again, they'll start off with a way bigger base then HD-DVD, due to the PS3.. The PS3 will sell out it's first shipments, even if it doesn't outdo the 360, having all those blu-ray players out on the market will help blu-ray out.

Plus, if blu-ray is that easy to get, and have, and the fact that it's better than HD-DVD, and that it has the support from all the major movie studios except for one, whereas HD-DVD is missing support from like 4 or 5 of the major movie studios that blu-ray has, I think blu-ray will be the winner of these two...

But, I don't see either taking off that big.. I'm not sure if enough people have HDTVs for it to be huge sellers.