The Five Stages of Collapse

[HERESY]

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html

All psych students in here will recognize the model the author of the blog used. The blog deals with americas collapse, and offers a very alarming perspective regarding the matter. I was going to cut and paste it here, but I didn't know if it would be too long to read so I provided the link.

After you read that link, go ahead and read this one:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/28/usforeignpolicy.useconomicgrowth

Don't just stop at the articles read the comments also as some of them actually coincide with what several people here have been saying about oil, the government, war etc (and no it isn't on some tree hugging hippy shit.)

EDIT: Here are th efive steps just in case you don't want to click the link:

Stages of Collapse

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

 

[ThaG]

Orlov has some very good writings...

The real question though, is whether this will be just American collapse or world-wide collapse, and I tend to think it is the latter...

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm

Anyway, we're in for some rough times, right now we're in stage 1, once we enter stage 2, we're in The End Of The World As We Know It mode

 

[JoMoDo]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#26876186

Here's a good interview (20 min) with Bill Gates that puts a positive spin on the direction we have the potential to head, as opposed to the traditional Doom & Gloom that engulfs us.

On the other hand, here's a link to a great video by TOOL from a while back, it popped into my mind last night after not listening to it for a while, I'm sure peeps around here may enjoy it as well
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCEeAn6_QJo

(if I knew how to put up vids straigt in the thread I would)

 

[Jae iLL]

Good read, real interesting to see how he breaks down what could happen within all the stages. It's some interesting times ahead of us for sure, all around the world. I'm living in Korea now and for the next few years, and it's getting interesting out here also.

However, I gotta say mayn, I'm still waitin on that blind man story.. haha I aint gonna forget, you got me curious on what happened with the blind man.

 

[Lordbyron]

Smack dab in the middle of "Stage 1"...


...The Soviet comparisons are very interesting...

 

[[ n a v ]]

I can think the order is a little less linear. I mean it can be argued that there are aspects of our society that are in partially in at least the first THREE stages. I certainly don't count on the government to take care of me, don't really trust the people of this country to either.

And cannibalism doesnt seem to out of the question either...

 

[JoMoDo]

Smack dab in the middle of "Stage 1"...


...The Soviet comparisons are very interesting...

I'd say we're in stage 3. Does stage 4 really exist? To a degree, but I can guess now that everyone here can agree right here and now that when the real heat is comin' down, you find out your real friend and not who will be there.

We gotta stay outta stage 5 though, that's some gnarley shit.

 

[ThaG]

we're still in stage 1 and have yet to eneter stage 2

 

[Mr. Nice Guy]

LOL, we are clearly in the beginings of stage 1.

I don't thing you guys realize the potential magnitude of Stage 1, let alone 2 or 3.

A Stage 1 in its entirety would be like if all the banks pulled a IndyMac/WAMU and the majority of people lost their savings, not a few isolated incidents.

Being in Stage 3 would be like living in Somolia. I don't think living in the US is anywhere near like that yet...

 

[ColdBlooded]

The soviet collapse was lessoned by its socio-economic structure and that there was a global superpower of equal or greater power to help cushion the fall.

U.S. collapse would not be as smooth.

China is not a global superpower and will not get through this unaffected. Its ability to expand its influence post U.S. collapse is questionable at best if due to nothing else, but its reliance on the U.S. as THE market for its economy.

 

[HERESY]

LOL, we are clearly in the beginings of stage 1.

I don't thing you guys realize the potential magnitude of Stage 1, let alone 2 or 3.

A Stage 1 in its entirety would be like if all the banks pulled a IndyMac/WAMU and the majority of people lost their savings, not a few isolated incidents.

Being in Stage 3 would be like living in Somolia. I don't think living in the US is anywhere near like that yet...

Who are the "you guys" you're making reference to?

 

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Who are the "you guys" you're making reference to?

Opps, just one you guy.

I'd say we're in stage 3.

 

[Lordbyron]

I'd say we're in stage 3. Does stage 4 really exist? To a degree, but I can guess now that everyone here can agree right here and now that when the real heat is comin' down, you find out your real friend and not who will be there.

We gotta stay outta stage 5 though, that's some gnarley shit.

Nah, we're still in stage 1...

 

[ThaG]

The soviet collapse was lessoned by its socio-economic structure and that there was a global superpower of equal or greater power to help cushion the fall.

U.S. collapse would not be as smooth.

China is not a global superpower and will not get through this unaffected. Its ability to expand its influence post U.S. collapse is questionable at best if due to nothing else, but its reliance on the U.S. as THE market for its economy.

China is very fragile because of the huge population, its reliance on foreign markets and its total dependency on coal energy. And coal in China will peak in decade or two...

 

[ThaG]

I'd say we're in stage 3. Does stage 4 really exist? To a degree, but I can guess now that everyone here can agree right here and now that when the real heat is comin' down, you find out your real friend and not who will be there.

We gotta stay outta stage 5 though, that's some gnarley shit.

Stage 2 is some gnarley shit

everything after that is a nightmare

BTW, I posted an article on the Great Filter theory and nobody cared to read it, I will try that again. Stage 5 is very relevant to the Great Filter theory because if we enter stage 5, we as a planet lose the great cosmic lottery

http://siccness.net/vb/showthread.php?t=284411&highlight=great+filter

 

[JoMoDo]

I'll ammend my position and say that we are in the middle of stages 1,2, & 3 and that they operated hand in hand.

Major banks going under, and 272 other midsize to small banks on the gov't watch list
for failure (that neither WaMu nor Wachovia were on)=financial collapse. People loosing 1/2 -all their retirement accounts = collapse (all though it happens at the depression stage of any down cycle).

To me, stage 2 & 3 go hand in hand. There are/were staunch republicans out there who have lost faith in the gov't and notion of 'free markets correct all' If this 'bailout' is ran wild & corrupt, which is very possible we will accelerate to the final parts of these stages no doubt. I'd even strech to say that education and healthcare are survival necessities, and there is no argument that they are already failing.

I still think stage 4 is more theory and doesn't really exist (at least not in 'American' society)

 

[HERESY]

Stage 4 can and will exist. Loss of medicare, loss of food banks, loss of homeless shelters, loss of women shelters/battered women hubs, loss of youth activity programs, loss of free lunch programs, loss of public library access, and a loss of any and everything that can be utilized by those who are at or below the poverty level.

 

[ThaG]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7585696.stm

 

[JoMoDo]

Stage 4 can and will exist. Loss of medicare, loss of food banks, loss of homeless shelters, loss of women shelters/battered women hubs, loss of youth activity programs, loss of free lunch programs, loss of public library access, and a loss of any and everything that can be utilized by those who are at or below the poverty level.

Good point, then one can also argue we're in stage 4 as well. Has not the past 8yrs already diminished funds and/or flat out eliminated some these types of organizations anyway?

To take another look as the glass half full, we could go on the assumption that in the event everything else fails, it may cause social reform in a good way with more utopian communal goals.

The collapse of financial, political and commerical systems would eliminate the middle class, thus polarizing the lower class. Then 2-0 Sixx orchestrates a hostile take over implements a coup, and my wife & I move.

Regardless of all these collapses, the uber-wealthy will dominate control of their technology and weapons and continue to dominate society. Which, if they did isolate and remove themselves from society, I can conceptualize ta cannabilism.

However, I don't know why, and despite all the contrary evidence in the world, I do have faith we may be able to fix this mess of a place we live in. There will be peace and harmony one way or another, weather we divert the path we are heading down now, or we blow up The world 10times over, and those that survive will have no choice but to work together. the question is which way to go.

 

[HERESY]

Good point, then one can also argue we're in stage 4 as well. Has not the past 8yrs already diminished funds and/or flat out eliminated some these types of organizations anyway?

Absolutely. In fact, Nav made a good point about the order being less linear, and it could be argued that we're currently experiencing symptoms or certain aspects of all 5. However, my perspective on stage 4 is that while we have experienced diminished forms in those areas, and some of those types of organizations have been flat out eliminated, we haven't reached a total melt down yet. In my opinion, one of the key things to watch for is the closing of church doors as most religious institutions rely on 501 c3 status from the government or tithing from the members. The way I see it, church/religious agents of socialization will either be the first or last to go, but expect hard times when they crumble as they'll no longer be able to contribute to other areas such as soup kitchens, homeless shelters, church rehabs etc and no one else will really be able to pick up the load.

To take another look as the glass half full, we could go on the assumption that in the event everything else fails, it may cause social reform in a good way with more utopian communal goals.

The collapse of financial, political and commerical systems would eliminate the middle class, thus polarizing the lower class. Then 2-0 Sixx orchestrates a hostile take over implements a coup, and my wife & I move.

Yes, it may cause social reform in a good way, but at what price and at who's expense? We have rough times ahead of us, and there will be a loss of life as a result of things shifting.

Regardless of all these collapses, the uber-wealthy will dominate control of their technology and weapons and continue to dominate society. Which, if they did isolate and remove themselves from society, I can conceptualize ta cannabilism.

I agree with this, but at that point we would have two things going for us. That would be more numbers and the need to survive. If we become independent of their technology, we would no longer need them, but then another problem perists. How long would it be before someone from our own ranks tried to pull a stunt like the uber-wealthy?

However, I don't know why, and despite all the contrary evidence in the world, I do have faith we may be able to fix this mess of a place we live in. There will be peace and harmony one way or another, weather we divert the path we are heading down now, or we blow up The world 10times over, and those that survive will have no choice but to work together. the question is which way to go.

I'm not so optimistic. In my opinion, only two things can change this: God setting it straight or an 'event' that causes 3/4 of the human population to die.