By John Clayton
ESPN.com
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It's difficult for teams to win more than 11 games against tough schedules. As the Bears and Seahawks have proven in the NFC, teams can take one of the league's easier schedules and make trips to the Super Bowl.
Here are five teams that have a schedule advantage and five that face a rough road:
EASY STREET?
1. Do you believe in the Arizona Cardinals? Maybe this is the season to do it. They have the league's easiest schedule (118-138, .461). The Cardinals have faced easy schedules before, but this might be the season they are best prepared to take advantage. Matt Leinart will be in his first full year of starting, and he appears to be the young quarterback Arizona has been missing. Ken Whisenhunt worked well with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and should be able to do the same with Leinart.
2. The Super Bowl loser lament was broken when the Seahawks won the NFC West last year, ending a six-year streak in which the Super Bowl loser didn't make the playoffs. Thanks to the league's second-easiest schedule, the Bears shouldn't have much of a dropoff from their 13-3 season. Though their .465 schedule (119-137) is substantially tougher than the league easiest schedule of 2006, they have six games to play with in the NFC North. The Bears might not win 13, but they still should win 11 and maybe 12 games this season despite a possible holdout by linebacker Lance Briggs.
3. If a team doesn't win a division, sometimes it's better to finish third than second. The Ravens and Chargers parlayed third-place schedules into division titles last year. The 49ers, who have the league's third-easiest schedule (120-136, .469), have a chance to make a jump from a 7-9 season. They play the 6-10 Vikings and 8-8 Giants. The Falcons have the same edge in the NFC South when they play the Vikings and Giants.
4. The NFL is giving Browns coach Romeo Crennel every possible chance to save his job -- or lose it. The Browns have their entire AFC North home slate in September, playing the Steelers Sept. 9, the Bengals Sept. 16 and the Ravens Sept. 30. The league gave them four home games by Oct. 14. The problem with that is if the Browns aren't off to a 4-2 or 3-3 start, Crennel could lose his job by the Oct. 21 bye week. Three of their last five games are on the road, so a 2-4 start -- particularly 1-2 or 0-3 against AFC North opponents -- could put Crennel on the hottest seat imaginable.
5. The Titans' schedule isn't easy. The winning percentage of their opponents (.520) is the fifth-toughest in the league, but it's a breeze compared to last season. In 2006, the Titans played an impossible schedule (playing teams that finished 146-110). To win eight games with a rookie quarterback, Vince Young, and one of the youngest rosters in the league is a credit to the coaching of Jeff Fisher. The Titans should know early where they stand. They open on the road in Jacksonville and follow the next Sunday with a home game against the Colts. Split those games, and the Titans should be off to a good start.
DOING IT THE HARD WAY
1. The Patriots won't have as easy a ride to the AFC title game as they did in 2006. They won 12 games last season, thanks in part to having a 127-129 schedule. The Patriots face the most difficult increase in difficulty of schedule. Their '07 opponents were 137-119 (.535) last season, the third-toughest schedule in the NFL. It's rare for any team playing a .530 schedule or tougher to get more than 11 wins.
2. The Raiders appear to be doomed, and this has nothing to do with having 31-year-old coach rookie head coach Lane Kiffin. They came off a brutal 2006 season in which they won only two games and had only 12 offensive touchdowns. Their opposing schedule was a brutal .555 (142-114, third-toughest in the league). Thanks to a tough schedule of AFC South games, the Raiders have the league's toughest schedule on paper in 2007. They face a 138-118 schedule, tied with the Buffalo Bills. Their only advantage is getting home games in the first three weeks against the Lions and Browns. That could allow them to get off to a 2-1 start.
3. Once again, the NFL made it tougher on the Super Bowl champ to repeat. A year ago, the Colts had three division home games in their first five. This season, the Colts have three division road games in their first six games. Compare that to the Jaguars, who have three AFC South games at home in the first six games.
4. The Cowboys might be America's Team, but their popularity could be a disadvantage. Without the demands of the flexible schedule from Weeks 11 through Week 17, the Cowboys have six night games, three on NBC Sunday night and two on the NFL Network. That doesn't include a Thanksgiving Day game against the Jets. That's seven national appearances. The problem is four of those night games are on the road, and the road demands overall are heavy at the beginning and end of the season. The Cowboys have three road games in their first five and three road games in the last four.
5. The NFL finally weeded out a lot of those unfair three-game road stretches. The only team forced to go on the dreaded three-game road stand is the Jaguars, who play at the Bucs Oct. 28, at the Saints Nov. 4 and at the Titans Nov. 11. Three-game road trips are tough because it's a drain because of injuries and the stress of playing on the road. What makes it particularly tough for the Jaguars is that they will be coming off a Oct. 22 Monday night game against the Colts. If the Jaguars lose that game, it could be tough to bounce back with three road games. John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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It's difficult for teams to win more than 11 games against tough schedules. As the Bears and Seahawks have proven in the NFC, teams can take one of the league's easier schedules and make trips to the Super Bowl.
Here are five teams that have a schedule advantage and five that face a rough road:
EASY STREET?
1. Do you believe in the Arizona Cardinals? Maybe this is the season to do it. They have the league's easiest schedule (118-138, .461). The Cardinals have faced easy schedules before, but this might be the season they are best prepared to take advantage. Matt Leinart will be in his first full year of starting, and he appears to be the young quarterback Arizona has been missing. Ken Whisenhunt worked well with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and should be able to do the same with Leinart.
2. The Super Bowl loser lament was broken when the Seahawks won the NFC West last year, ending a six-year streak in which the Super Bowl loser didn't make the playoffs. Thanks to the league's second-easiest schedule, the Bears shouldn't have much of a dropoff from their 13-3 season. Though their .465 schedule (119-137) is substantially tougher than the league easiest schedule of 2006, they have six games to play with in the NFC North. The Bears might not win 13, but they still should win 11 and maybe 12 games this season despite a possible holdout by linebacker Lance Briggs.
3. If a team doesn't win a division, sometimes it's better to finish third than second. The Ravens and Chargers parlayed third-place schedules into division titles last year. The 49ers, who have the league's third-easiest schedule (120-136, .469), have a chance to make a jump from a 7-9 season. They play the 6-10 Vikings and 8-8 Giants. The Falcons have the same edge in the NFC South when they play the Vikings and Giants.
4. The NFL is giving Browns coach Romeo Crennel every possible chance to save his job -- or lose it. The Browns have their entire AFC North home slate in September, playing the Steelers Sept. 9, the Bengals Sept. 16 and the Ravens Sept. 30. The league gave them four home games by Oct. 14. The problem with that is if the Browns aren't off to a 4-2 or 3-3 start, Crennel could lose his job by the Oct. 21 bye week. Three of their last five games are on the road, so a 2-4 start -- particularly 1-2 or 0-3 against AFC North opponents -- could put Crennel on the hottest seat imaginable.
5. The Titans' schedule isn't easy. The winning percentage of their opponents (.520) is the fifth-toughest in the league, but it's a breeze compared to last season. In 2006, the Titans played an impossible schedule (playing teams that finished 146-110). To win eight games with a rookie quarterback, Vince Young, and one of the youngest rosters in the league is a credit to the coaching of Jeff Fisher. The Titans should know early where they stand. They open on the road in Jacksonville and follow the next Sunday with a home game against the Colts. Split those games, and the Titans should be off to a good start.
DOING IT THE HARD WAY
1. The Patriots won't have as easy a ride to the AFC title game as they did in 2006. They won 12 games last season, thanks in part to having a 127-129 schedule. The Patriots face the most difficult increase in difficulty of schedule. Their '07 opponents were 137-119 (.535) last season, the third-toughest schedule in the NFL. It's rare for any team playing a .530 schedule or tougher to get more than 11 wins.
2. The Raiders appear to be doomed, and this has nothing to do with having 31-year-old coach rookie head coach Lane Kiffin. They came off a brutal 2006 season in which they won only two games and had only 12 offensive touchdowns. Their opposing schedule was a brutal .555 (142-114, third-toughest in the league). Thanks to a tough schedule of AFC South games, the Raiders have the league's toughest schedule on paper in 2007. They face a 138-118 schedule, tied with the Buffalo Bills. Their only advantage is getting home games in the first three weeks against the Lions and Browns. That could allow them to get off to a 2-1 start.
3. Once again, the NFL made it tougher on the Super Bowl champ to repeat. A year ago, the Colts had three division home games in their first five. This season, the Colts have three division road games in their first six games. Compare that to the Jaguars, who have three AFC South games at home in the first six games.
4. The Cowboys might be America's Team, but their popularity could be a disadvantage. Without the demands of the flexible schedule from Weeks 11 through Week 17, the Cowboys have six night games, three on NBC Sunday night and two on the NFL Network. That doesn't include a Thanksgiving Day game against the Jets. That's seven national appearances. The problem is four of those night games are on the road, and the road demands overall are heavy at the beginning and end of the season. The Cowboys have three road games in their first five and three road games in the last four.
5. The NFL finally weeded out a lot of those unfair three-game road stretches. The only team forced to go on the dreaded three-game road stand is the Jaguars, who play at the Bucs Oct. 28, at the Saints Nov. 4 and at the Titans Nov. 11. Three-game road trips are tough because it's a drain because of injuries and the stress of playing on the road. What makes it particularly tough for the Jaguars is that they will be coming off a Oct. 22 Monday night game against the Colts. If the Jaguars lose that game, it could be tough to bounce back with three road games. John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
