Draft watch: Duke curse?posted: Wednesday, December 14, 2005 | Feedback
Another week of great college and international hoops, another update of our Top 100.
No. 1? Duke has the No. 1 college basketball team in the country ... and two college player of the year candidates in J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams. The Blue Devils also just smoked the No. 2 team in the country, Texas -- a team that had two players, LaMarcus Aldridge and Daniel Gibson, ranked in the top 10 of my NBA draft prospect list.
So, my readers asked, why was neither Redick nor Williams in the top 10? Why was Josh McRoberts, a role player on the team, the highest-ranked Duke player? Am I a believer in "the Duke curse" (the urban legend that Coach K produces only NBA role players)?
Good questions.
Five answers:
One, I'm not a believer in the Duke curse. Last time I checked, Elton Brand, a former Blue Devil, was an early favorite to win the league MVP award.
Two, we all know by now that success at the college level doesn't always translate at the NBA level.
Redick is having an amazing season. However, does anyone remember a guy named Steve Alford? He averaged 22 ppg for Indiana, shot 53 percent from 3-point range in his senior season and won an NCAA title ... and went on to average 4.4 ppg in four seasons in the NBA.
Redick is bigger and tougher than Alford, and a better athlete, too. Still, he is undersized for his position, will be a defensive liability at the next level and will struggle to do some of the things he does well in college in the pros.
Scouts have noted that Redick seems to have diversified his game greatly this season, but they wonder seriously whether he'll be able to get to the rim and create his own shot off the dribble at the next level. He has learned how to do it at the college level, but on the surface it doesn't appear as though he has the tools to do the same thing at the next level.
Although a few NBA execs continue to insist that Redick could be a lottery pick, the majority of them see him in the 18-30 range in the draft. That's a big improvement from when he started the season, but I don't think you'll see him budge much more unless he grows three more inches, increases his vertical by six inches or proves to scouts he could be a point guard in the league.
Three, Williams has cracked the top 10 ... so be patient. He was impressive offensively in that Texas game. His game is still about rebounding, shot blocking and scoring near the basket, but he has improved his offensive game. That's important because his ability on that end of the floor was the biggest knock scouts had on him at the start of the season.
Scouts wish he were a little taller and a little more athletic. But rebounding and shot blocking tend to translate from college to the pros. Although he'll probably never be an 18-ppg player in the league, he could be a 10 rebound, 2.5 blocks per night type of power forward. Given the dearth of big men in the upcoming draft, that could be enough for him to crack the top 10.
Four, the best NBA prospect on the Duke team is McRoberts. He's not ready now. But he has the skills to be a lottery pick. Then again, as "Duke curse" believers could tell you, scouts thought just as highly of Christian Laettner, Danny Ferry and Mike Dunleavy Jr. ...
Finally, despite the loss, the best NBA prospect on the floor was Aldridge. He really had no trouble scoring against Williams, and numerous scouts came away from the game impressed with how he handled such a high-profile matchup against a stronger, more physical defender.
Aldridge is the total package. He's long (some claim his wingspan is 7-5), athletic, skilled, and active on both the offensive and defensive boards. His ability to score inside and outside makes him especially attractive at the next level.
His only problem is persuading his teammates to give him the ball. Aldridge isn't demanding it the way he should, which has concerned some scouts, but I think it's probably a bigger knock on Gibson, whose stock continues to sink after another shaky performance against a top team. Although there's nothing wrong with Gibson's offensive game, he struggles to run a team. Scouts continue to question seriously whether he can be a full-time point guard at the next level.
