The
"Lose For a Better Draft Pick" mentality is flawed b/c
1) The Fan Code (never root against your team, if you're physically/emotionally capable of this then you aren't a fan of that squad, plain and simple)
2) It HASN'T PROVEN TO BE CORRECT HISTORICALLY
Even though both of these team groups usually miss the playoff party,
finishing in that 6-8 win range bodes much better for the immediate and distant future than finishing in the 3-5 win range. The 6-8 win teams still get great draft picks (Shawne Merriman drafted at #12, he straight terrorized my Hawks today), and the fact you were able to win that many games means that
you are not that far away in today's NFL. Losing the last couple to finish with 4-5 wins throws all of that away.
I created a spreadsheet of all NFL Teams in the last 10 years that finished with 8 wins or less. You can download it
HERE
Summary -
1 Win: 3 teams
AVG Wins next year = 7.00,
1 of 3 in SB next 5 years (33.33%)
2 Wins: 4 teams
AVG Wins next year = 4.50,
0 of 4 in SB next 5 years (0%)
3 Wins: 11 teams
AVG Wins next year = 6.82,
1 of 11 in SB next 5 years (9.06%)
4 Wins: 20 teams
AVG Wins next year = 6.90,
4 of 20 in SB next 5 years (20%)
5 Wins: 24 teams
AVG Wins next year = 7.46,
3 of 24 in SB next 5 years (12.5%)
6 Wins: 31 teams
AVG Wins next year = 7.87,
6 of 31 in SB next 5 years (19.35%)
7 Wins: 30 teams
AVG Wins next year = 7.20,
5 of 30 in SB next 5 years (16.67%)
8 Wins: 33 teams
AVG Wins next year = 7.76,
10 of 33 in SB next 5 years (30.30%)
AGGREGATED DATA Summary -
1-5 Wins: 62 teams
AVG Wins next year = 6.95,
9 of 62 in SB next 5 years (14.52%)
6-8 Wins: 94 teams
AVG Wins next year = 7.62,
21 of 94 in SB next 5 years (22.34%)
I know mediocrity is not exciting. High draft picks make fans feel more optimistic for next season than winning a couple of meaningless regular season games at the end of the year. But the fact is, 6-8 Win teams with "Mediocre" draft picks (8-16) are almost TWICE AS LIKELY to make a Super Bowl than 1-5 Win teams with those sexy high draft picks.
This is
NOT the 12 to a roster NBA, it's the 55 to a roster NFL. There is never a Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan or Lebron James instant league-changer in the NFL Draft. If it was, the NFL would have a lottery too.
Having the highest draft picks usually does not lead to greater immediate or long-term success. It usually leads to that cycle of losing that's extremely difficult to break (Arizona Cardinals, how many high draft picks on that terrible squad?). This mentality is highly indicative of that average Joe Schmo fan out there who simply doesn't get it. Aryo, I read your posts about the game today, you've got heart, I know you're better than this. I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just trying to give folks the facts to form their opinions around, I'm trying to help people
truly understand what they're watching.
Niner fans, I know Sunday was a tough day for you guys, but trust me, you want to win next week.