from horseraceinsider.com
Rachel Alexandra in DeNile
SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, May 15, 2009--Speed closest to the rail was very good Friday at Pimlico, but it’s hard to know what to expect this afternoon given an iffy forecast.
Weather handicappers are calling for a 30-40 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. It can get awfully humid on May afternoons up on Old Hilltop.
A sealed, sloppy track generally is speed favoring, but a drying track is another animal all together. Just ask many of the Derby horses that left their best efforts in the barn.
Pimlico dries out fairly fast but not as quickly as Churchill Downs. Going to school on the early races is never a bad idea, especially given these circumstances.
For the record, we believe that Pioneerof The Nile is the most logical winner, followed by the Oaks and Derby winners, Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird, respectively.
The filly has the most talent and could win this easily. If this were the Belmont field three weeks from now, she would be the top selection. We’re just not buying today’s scenario.
The following is the basic structure for what my multiple pool wagers will look like:
TOP Tier: PIONEEROF THE NILE
SECOND Tier: RACHEL ALEXANDRA, MINE THAT BIRD, FRIESAN FIRE, BIG DRAMA
THIRD Tier: TAKE THE POINTS
FOURTH or FIFTH Tier: FLYING PRIVATE, MUSKET MAN, PAPA CLEM
Rules of Play: A horse cannot move up more than one level. In that case, Flying Private can be used on the third tier, not the second; Take The Points can be on the second level but not the top. All horses may be used in any lowered-tiered position.
If early line odds hold, I will key Pioneerof The Nile first and second with the four horses on the second tier in trifectas and superfectas. I will also switch the second and third levels with each other, and the third and fourth levels with each other.
I will also make a five-horse exacta box of the first and second tier horses. If the filly doesn’t finish first or second, the payoffs will blow up exponentially. I will add Take The Points to the bottom of the exacta.
Horses considered for win wagering; value only. Pioneerof The Nile, a minimum of 5-1. I would need 8-1 or greater on Friesan Fire. At least 5-1 or Mine That Bird.
Written by John Pricci